Name: Polymarket Trader
Availability: InStock
Author: drakec48

Polymarket Trader

Maintain a profitable BTC 1h Up/Down strategy by anchoring decisions to Binance BTCUSDT (the resolution source) and enforcing anti-churn/risk rules.

Workflow (use this order)

Confirm the market type

This skill is optimized for
```
bitcoin-up-or-down-*
```
1h markets (Binance 1H open vs close).

Compute the anchor signal (Binance)

Fetch 1m closes + the 1h open for the relevant hour.
Compute volatility (sigma) and time-to-expiry.
Convert to fair probability for Up/Down.

Trade only when there is measurable edge

Enter only if
```
edge = fair_prob - market_price
```
exceeds a threshold.
Add a directional guardrail: do not bet against the sign of the move when |z| is non-trivial.

Exit using the right logic for the entry mode

Model entries: exit on edge decay / model flip; hold to preclose when confidence is extreme.
Mean-reversion entries: exit on reversion targets (not model-tp), with strict churn limits.

Validate with logs

Every suspected “nonsense trade” must be explained via:
- ```
reason
```
  /
```
entry_mode
```
- Binance-derived fair probability + z
- whether the correct exit block fired

Bundled scripts

All scripts are designed to be run from the OpenClaw workspace.

1) Fetch Binance klines

```
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_klines.py
```
- Pulls klines and prints JSON.

2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics

```
{baseDir}/scripts/binance_regime.py
```
- Computes ret5/ret15/slope10 + simple “stabilized” boolean.

3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context

```
{baseDir}/scripts/explain_fills.py
```
- Reads paperbot
```
events.jsonl
```
  and prints a concise table for the last N fills:
  - side/outcome/px/reason
  - estimated fair_up + z
  - “against trend?” flag

References

```
{baseDir}/references/strategy.md
```
— the math model, parameters, and tuning checklist.

Polymarket Trader

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Polymarket Trader

Workflow (use this order)

Bundled scripts

1) Fetch Binance klines

2) Dump/stabilization and regime metrics

3) Explain fills (events.jsonl) with Binance context

References

Quick Start

Manual Installation

TEAR & SHARE

Tags

Data Analysis

PostgreSQL

Snowflake MCP Connection

SQL

Create an Excel (.xlsx) file containing formatted data.

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